WPP revises global ad forecast to $1.08 trillion amid trade disruptions
WPP Media cuts 2025 global advertising growth forecast to 6% from 7.7%, citing trade disruptions and deglobalization pressures affecting the $1.08 trillion market.
Global advertising revenue growth faces headwinds as economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions reshape investment patterns across markets, according to WPP Media's latest Mid-Year Global Advertising Forecast released on June 10, 2025. The forecast, published today as part of the ongoing This Year Next Year series, revises projected growth downward from December 2024's optimistic 7.7% to a more cautious 6.0% for 2025.
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According to WPP Media Business Intelligence, global advertising revenue will reach $1.08 trillion in 2025, with growth projected at 6.1% for 2026. The revised forecast reflects "disruptions to global trade and continued deglobalization pressures weighing on advertising investment," marking a significant departure from earlier expectations for the industry.
The compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2030 has been adjusted to 5.4%, down from the previously projected 6.4% CAGR for 2024-2029. This recalibration suggests persistent challenges ahead for the advertising ecosystem as brands navigate shifting economic conditions and evolving consumer behaviors.
Digital dominance accelerates across formats
Pure-play digital advertising maintains its commanding position, expected to account for 73.2% of global ad revenue in 2025. When including digital extensions such as streaming television, digital out-of-home, and digital print, this share rises to 81.6%, underscoring the comprehensive digital transformation reshaping media investment strategies.
The retail media segment continues explosive growth, projected to reach $169.6 billion globally in 2025 and expand to $252.1 billion by 2030. This trajectory positions retail media to comprise 18% of all advertising revenue by decade's end, reflecting fundamental changes in how brands connect with consumers at points of purchase.
User-generated content platforms demonstrate remarkable momentum, with creator-driven advertising revenue set to hit $184.9 billion this year, representing 20% growth from 2024. According to the forecast, "In 2025, more than half of content-driven advertising revenue will come from platforms like TikTok, YouTube, Kuaishou, and Instagram Reels." Creator-generated revenue is expected to more than double to $376.6 billion by 2030.
Traditional media shows mixed resilience
Television advertising, including streaming services, faces modest growth prospects with a projected 1.0% increase to $162.5 billion in 2025. Streaming television contributes $41.8 billion to this total and demonstrates stronger growth potential, expected to reach $71.9 billion by 2030.
Out-of-home advertising maintains stability within the broader traditional media landscape. According to WPP's analysis, "Out-of-home (OOH) advertising has maintained its share of total advertising better than any other 'traditional' advertising format over the past 20 years, and it is expected to maintain its post-COVID recovery share of 4.8% in 2023 through the end of our forecast in 2030 when it will total $68.2 billion, 1.8 times its 2019 size."
Digital out-of-home represents 41% of the $52 billion OOH market in 2025, demonstrating how traditional formats adapt through technological integration. China remains the largest OOH market through 2030, followed by the United States and Japan.
Print advertising continues declining at -3.1% in 2025 to reach $45.5 billion, while audio advertising remains flat at $26.5 billion as streaming growth offsets terrestrial format declines of -1.7%. Cinema advertising, while maintaining stable revenue share at 0.2% through 2030, shows modest recovery with 5.1% growth in 2025 to $2.1 billion, reaching $2.4 billion by 2030.
Search intelligence drives technical advancement
Search advertising, classified under WPP's new "Intelligence" category, demonstrates robust performance with expected 7.3% growth to $226.2 billion in 2025. This segment reflects increasing advertiser investment in intent-driven targeting and performance marketing capabilities.
The forecast introduces four key reclassification categories: Content, Commerce, Location, and Intelligence. These categories align more closely with contemporary investment patterns and technological capabilities, moving beyond traditional media distinctions that no longer reflect market realities.
Regional markets show varied trajectories
The United States maintains its position as the largest advertising market with forecast revenue of $404.7 billion in 2025, representing 5.6% growth. China follows at $211.6 billion with 6.8% growth, while the United Kingdom ranks third at $55.0 billion with 6.5% expansion.
Brazil leads growth among major markets at 11.9% to reach $23.1 billion, followed by India at 8.4% to $21.3 billion. Japan projects 4.0% growth to $50.5 billion, while Germany expects 5.5% expansion to $38.0 billion. France anticipates 4.9% growth to $30.7 billion, with Canada and Australia rounding out the top ten markets.
All major advertising markets remain positioned for growth in 2025, though regional variations reflect different economic conditions and market maturity levels across geographies.
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Artificial intelligence reshapes production and targeting
Advertisers increasingly embrace artificial intelligence across production and targeting functions, seeking cost savings and performance optimization. Economic pressure accelerates this adoption trend, though implementation timelines vary significantly across organizations and market segments.
The forecast notes that "opinions vary on the timeline for adoption of tools such as generative AI, virtual assistants, and immersive tech," suggesting continued experimentation rather than wholesale transformation in the near term.
Advanced analytics and measurement capabilities become increasingly critical as brands demand more sophisticated attribution and optimization tools. Cross-platform measurement gains importance as advertising spans multiple channels and devices, requiring unified view capabilities for effective campaign management.
Market implications for advertising professionals
The revised forecast carries significant implications for marketing professionals navigating budget allocation and strategic planning. The shift from traditional demographic targeting toward contextual and interest-based approaches reflects privacy regulation impacts and changing consumer expectations around data usage.
Retail media's explosive growth creates new partnership opportunities between brands and commerce platforms, fundamentally altering media buying strategies. The rise of creator economies demands new skills in influencer relationship management and user-generated content integration.
Traditional media's continued presence, albeit with slower growth, suggests multichannel approaches remain optimal for comprehensive audience reach. The stability of out-of-home advertising particularly benefits location-based marketing strategies and brands seeking high-impact visual presence.
Digital transformation acceleration requires agencies and brands to develop capabilities across programmatic buying, advanced analytics, and emerging format optimization. The growth of streaming television advertising necessitates understanding of connected television measurement and attribution complexities.
Technology integration drives format evolution
The forecast's emphasis on digital extensions within traditional media categories reflects ongoing convergence between online and offline advertising channels. Digital out-of-home integration with mobile targeting capabilities exemplifies how location-based advertising adapts to contemporary consumer behaviors.
Streaming television's growth trajectory demands sophisticated measurement approaches that account for cross-device viewing and connected television attribution challenges. The integration of artificial intelligence across creative production and audience targeting suggests fundamental changes in campaign development processes.
The expansion of retail media networks creates new data collaboration opportunities between brands and commerce platforms, enabling more precise targeting at purchase consideration moments. This development particularly benefits consumer packaged goods companies seeking performance-driven alternatives to traditional mass media approaches.
Economic factors shape investment patterns
The downward revision of growth projections reflects broader economic uncertainties affecting business confidence and advertising investment decisions. Trade disruptions and deglobalization pressures create additional complexity for multinational brands managing global campaign strategies.
Currency fluctuations and regional economic variations require more sophisticated budget allocation approaches across international markets. The forecast's emphasis on resilience and recalibration suggests continued adaptation as economic conditions evolve throughout 2025.
Interest rate environments and consumer spending patterns influence advertising effectiveness across categories, particularly affecting retail and automotive sectors that rely heavily on purchase consideration advertising. The growth variation across markets reflects these differential economic impacts on local advertising ecosystems.
Timeline
December 2024
- WPP Media forecasts 7.7% global advertising growth for 2025
February 9, 2025
- Programmatic advertising growth reaches 72% - Survey reveals 72% of marketers planning increased programmatic investment
March 2025
May 21, 2025
- European digital ads hit €118.9bn with 16% growth in 2024 - IAB Europe releases comprehensive AdEx Benchmark Report
May 2025
- WPP rebrands GroupM to WPP Media with workforce reductions
June 4, 2025
June 5, 2025
- ID5 partners with Future Today for CTV advertising addressability
- Magnite partners with Anoki to enable scene-level targeting in CTV
June 9, 2025
- WPP chief announces departure as Publicis rivalry intensifies - Mark Read steps down after seven years
June 10, 2025
- WPP Media releases Mid-Year Global Advertising Forecast, revising 2025 growth to 6.0%