Tariff concerns push 34% of shoppers to start holiday buying early

Tariff anxiety has prompted more than one-third of consumers to begin holiday shopping earlier than usual this year. Over one-third (34%) of consumers started their holiday shopping in October or earlier, while 23% plan to wait for Black Friday and Cyber Monday to make purchases, according to survey data collected October 27-28, 2025, by Wunderkind, an agentic AI decisioning platform.

The findings arrive as retailers prepare for a shopping season shaped by sustained price pressures. Wunderkind's data demonstrates how economic conditions continue affecting consumer behavior heading into the year's most critical revenue period. Eighty-five percent of holiday shoppers anticipate higher prices due to tariffs, according to National Retail Federation research released October 16, 2025, with consumers planning to spend $890.49 per person on average.

Economic caution drives spending adjustments

Well over half (59%) of consumers describe themselves as cautious, pessimistic or panicked about the economy, according to Wunderkind's survey of 324 U.S. consumers. However, 26% report feeling optimistic about their financial situation. Optimism peaks among Gen Z (33%) and Millennials (32%), while Boomers (15%) remain the most uneasy, highlighting a generational divide in economic outlook.

Spending intentions reflect this mixed sentiment. Thirty-one percent of shoppers plan to spend less than last year, compared to 23% who expect to spend more. The remaining half intend to maintain similar spending levels. Millennials (37%) and Gen Z (29%) lead in plans to spend more, while Boomers (41%) and Gen X (39%) expect to spend less.

Men show more optimism than women, with 37% feeling upbeat versus 16% of women. This gender gap extends to spending plans, with women more likely to reduce expenditures (39% versus 29% of men).

Price anxiety overshadows all other concerns

Rising costs remain the defining force shaping consumer behavior. A staggering 71% of shoppers cite higher prices as their top concern, while nearly half (47%) worry about unpredictable price increases. Gen X (78%) and Boomers (75%) demonstrate the most sensitivity to price hikes. Millennials (59%) express concern as well, particularly around product availability and promotions.

Younger groups show nearly twice the likelihood as older ones to mention shipping delays (19%) or lack of Black Friday Cyber Monday promotions (14%). Women express more concern about rising prices (73% versus 68% of men) and unpredictability (73% versus 68% of men), while men focus on stock reliability (27% versus 15% of women) and lack of promotions (11% versus 7% of women).

Tariff-related price anxiety colors perceptions of cost burden. Over half of consumers (52%) believe they pay the largest portion of tariff-related costs. This view appears most strongly among Boomers (65%) and Gen X (60%). By contrast, Millennials (43%) and Gen Z (39%) show somewhat more optimism, with higher shares believing brands, retailers, manufacturers or exporting countries share in the expense.

Women demonstrate significantly greater likelihood than men to feel consumers shoulder costs directly (57% versus 46% of men). These beliefs shape how shoppers evaluate promotional offers and brand messaging during the shopping season.

Adaptation strategies emerge across demographics

Tariffs and rising prices continue reshaping how Americans approach holiday shopping. Thirty-eight percent say they are seeking deals more often, confirming that bargain-hunting has become a default strategy rather than seasonal habit. Another 34% are spending less overall, and 26% are prioritizing essentials over gifts.

Gen Z (42%) and Gen X (40%) lead in deal-seeking, showing confidence in their ability to shop smarter. Gen X (28%), as well as Millennials and Gen Z (both 26%) are waiting specifically for Black Friday Cyber Monday to make purchases. Meanwhile, Boomers (37%) stand apart with a sizable share reporting no major change in habits, reflecting both spending caution and loyalty to familiar shopping routines.

Women report spending less more often (39% versus 29% of men), while men more often report shopping earlier to spread out costs. These patterns reveal a consumer base that's pragmatic, not pessimistic, strategically adjusting rather than pulling back entirely.

AI adoption grows as shoppers seek savings

Just over half of shoppers (53%) now use regularly or occasionally, or plan to use, AI to discover savings. Millennials (46%) lead regular usage, with Gen Z (69%) topping the billing for regular and occasional combined usage.

Over half (56%) of Boomers say they've never used AI for deals, reflecting trust and familiarity gaps rather than lack of interest. Men show more likelihood to use AI regularly (36% versus 25% of women), while women register higher levels of never having dabbled (33% versus 22% of men).

Comfort with AI-powered personalization varies sharply across age groups. Overall, almost one-third (32%) of consumers say they're very comfortable with AI-powered personalization, while the same amount feel somewhat comfortable, provided it's transparent. Millennials (50%) show by far the most comfort using AI in shopping, followed by Gen Z (33%) and Gen X (31%). In contrast, 43% of Boomers describe AI as intrusive.

The growing adoption of AI for gift shopping aligns with broader industry trends. Eighty-three percent of weekly AI users plan to rely on algorithms for holiday shopping decisions this year, according to September 2025 research from Zeta Global released October 28, 2025.

Channel preferences blend online and physical retail

While 35% of shoppers plan to shop mostly online, an almost equal share (36%) intend to mix channels and participate in both online and in-store shopping. This omnichannel mindset reflects post-pandemic normalization of blending browsing, comparing and buying across platforms to maximize savings.

Gen X (42%), Millennials (43%) and Gen Z (43%) show the strongest intent to combine online and in-store activity. By contrast, Boomers (40%) demonstrate the highest digital reliance, preferring online shopping for ease and predictability. However, in-store enthusiasm climbs among younger groups, with 27% of both Millennials and Gen Z saying they'll shop mostly in stores, driven by social experiences and tactile product discovery.

Men show more likelihood to plan in-store shopping (27% versus 13% of women). These dual behaviors create opportunities for retailers who can synchronize offers, pricing and promotions across digital and physical channels.

Physical retail maintains strong appeal heading into the season. Eighty percent of holiday shoppers plan to make purchases in physical stores, according to November 2024 research from Vibenomics and Suzy Market Research, with 66% citing immediate availability without shipping delays as their primary motivation.

Deal-seeking tactics become more sophisticated

Consumers take more strategic approaches to securing value. The most common tactic, reported by 31% of consumers, involves adding items to carts and abandoning them to trigger follow-up promotions. Nearly as many subscribe to email or text alerts (30%) or revisit sites repeatedly to activate remarketing offers (26%).

Millennials (41%) lead in cart-abandonment tactics, while Gen Z top the list for creating multiple accounts (35%) and clicking through emails (31%) to signal interest and unlock deals. Boomers (64%) largely avoid such tactics. Women demonstrate more strategic behavior than men in every category, according to the survey findings.

These behaviors signal opportunity rather than deception. When consumers use deliberate signal behaviors to prompt brand discounts, they're indicating purchase intent. Rather than penalizing deal-seekers, brands can reward intent intelligently through triggered messages, personalized incentives and loyalty perks.

Transparency emerges as loyalty driver

A majority of shoppers, 58% overall, say they're more likely to stay loyal when brands clearly communicate about pricing, stock and exclusive offers during uncertain times. This trend shows even stronger among younger consumers: 68% of Gen Z and 62% of Millennials respond positively to openness and updates, compared with just 39% of Boomers.

Men demonstrate far more receptiveness to transparent communication (65% versus 52% of women). More than half (58%) believe brands should be transparent about price changes. Consumers signal they will reward honesty, stable pricing and value.

The importance of transparency extends to messaging strategies. Messages emphasizing price guarantees (19%) lead consumer preferences, closely followed by savings (17%), loyalty exclusives (15%) and time-sensitive deals (15%). Boomers (29%) respond best to clear savings messages, while men favor "price guarantee" or "never-lower" promises that signal dependability (22% versus 16% of women).

Younger shoppers respond to excitement and exclusivity. Gen Z (25%) react most to "limited time" or "ends tonight" messages, while Millennials (17%) show higher engagement for truly personalized offers. Messaging that highlights sustainability or social good appeals to niche segments (around 8%), particularly among younger, values-driven consumers.

Shopping timing splits between early starters and deal waiters

Holiday shopping starts earlier than ever. Over one-third (34%) of consumers began in October or before. This early activity reflects growing caution under tariff-related price pressures, as shoppers spread out costs and hunt for value before the rush. Gen X and Gen Z (both 37%) emerge as the most likely early starters.

At the same time, nearly one-quarter (23%) plan to wait for Black Friday Cyber Monday to shop, especially younger audiences drawn to major deal events. Gen Z (32%) most heavily lean into late-season purchases, often timing buys to coincide with flash sales or loyalty promotions. Boomers stand out for their steady approach, showing the least likelihood to shop during Black Friday Cyber Monday and most likelihood to shop after, less influenced by retail calendars and more focused on consistent pricing.

Black Friday 2025 falls on November 28, with Cyber Monday on December 1, according to dates confirmed by Walmart in August 2025. The 2024 Cyber Week period generated $41.1 billion online overall, up 8.2% year-over-year, with Black Friday reaching $10.8 billion and Cyber Monday hitting record $13.3 billion.

This split demands a two-phase strategy: early-access campaigns and preview sales to capture planners, followed by high-impact, time-sensitive offers for deal-day buyers. The data suggests 63% of shoppers plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend for most shopping, representing a 4-percentage-point increase from last year.

Product categories and offer preferences remain consistent

When it comes to purchase plans, consumers prioritize value and versatility. Apparel and shoes (41%) comfortably rank as the top purchase category, followed by toys and video games (31%) and electronics (30%), reaffirming their perennial appeal as deal-day essentials.

Millennials (49%), Gen X (45%) and Gen Z (44%) dominate apparel purchases, while Boomers (37%) lean toward gift cards, prioritizing practical, flexible spending. Gen Z shows emerging appetite for beauty products (20%), fragrances (18%) and jewelry (20%), signaling a shift toward self-expression and affordable luxury.

Men demonstrate heavier spending on electronics (39% versus 22% of women), while women lead in beauty (18% versus 9% of men) and fragrances (16% versus 11% of men). These category preferences guide where marketers should concentrate promotional efforts.

When asked which types of offers most influence purchases, consumers made priorities clear. Free shipping (49%) tops the list, followed closely by discount codes (43%). Gen X (51%) and Gen Z (48%) show especially strong motivation from discount codes, while Boomers (59%) overwhelmingly prefer free shipping.

Millennials show growing interest in bundled gift sets (27%) and general brand sales (34%), representing double that of any other generation. Women over-index on free shipping (57% versus 40% of men), while men engage more with bundles (19% versus 14% of women).

Channel preferences for personalized offers shift toward mobile

Email (53%) remains the top choice for receiving personalized offers, underscoring its reliability and trust among consumers. However, text/SMS (37%) and in-app push notifications (23%) close the gap, particularly among younger audiences.

Gen Z (46%) favor text alerts, while Millennials demand push notifications (39%) and mobile wallet offers (24%). Notably, 13% of respondents say they do not want marketing offers at all, peaking at 29% of Boomers. Men still prioritize email (59% versus 47% of women), while women lean toward SMS (40% versus 34% of men).

The shift toward mobile channels reflects broader changes in how consumers engage with brands. Amazon expanded AI capabilities for personalized shopping throughout early 2025, while Google unveiled AI-powered Shopping platform updates in October 2024, both emphasizing mobile-first experiences.

Implications for marketing professionals

The survey findings position Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 as a pivotal test of agility and trust for marketers. Economic caution persists but has not paralyzed spending. Consumers adapt strategically, seeking deals more often, prioritizing essentials and demanding transparency.

Success hinges on blending urgency for younger audiences with assurance for older ones, leveraging transparency, personalized deals and mobile-first engagement. Brands should emphasize value and reassurance for women and older consumers while using time-sensitive, motivational messaging for younger cohorts.

The deal-hunting mindset now appears universal, but manifests differently by age and gender. Younger generations lead with optimism and experimentation, actively using AI tools and digital tactics. Boomers, who make up a large share of retail spending power, remain guarded but respond to clear savings messages and reliable free shipping.

For marketers, this climate calls for clarity, consistency and credible discounts. Overpromising or fluctuating offers can easily erode trust. Brands that explain pricing changes, provide visibility into inventory and personalize messages around real savings will strengthen loyalty even as economic pressure rises.

Coordinated campaigns that bridge app alerts, online remarketing and in-store exclusives can capture shoppers wherever they choose to convert. In a season where every dollar counts, balancing security with excitement becomes key to turning intent into action.

Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 will be defined not just by discounts, but by trust. Winning brands will pair real savings with real transparency, meeting consumers where value and credibility intersect.

Timeline

• October 27-28, 2025: Wunderkind conducted survey of 324 U.S. consumers on tariff impacts and Black Friday Cyber Monday shopping behaviors
• October 16, 2025: National Retail Federation released holiday spending forecast showing consumers plan $890.49 per person with 85% anticipating higher tariff-related prices
• October 9, 2025: Admetrics released 150-page Black Friday Cyber Monday playbook for direct-to-consumer brands after 2024 generated record $24 billion
• October 1, 2025: Final deadline for Walmart Fulfillment Services enrollment with guaranteed Black Friday Cyber Monday delivery capacity
• August 31, 2025: Walmart confirmed November 28 Black Friday and December 1 Cyber Monday dates for 2025 promotional calendar
• November 27, 2025: Thanksgiving launches intensive holiday shopping period
• November 28, 2025: Black Friday represents year's largest promotional sales event
• December 1, 2025: Cyber Monday extends online shopping focus

Summary

Who: Wunderkind, an agentic AI decisioning platform built to drive hyper-personalized experiences, conducted research involving 324 U.S. consumers evenly split across genders and adult age groups to examine how tariffs reshape consumer sentiment and purchasing decisions.

What: Survey data reveals 34% of consumers began holiday shopping in October or earlier as tariff concerns drive changed behaviors, with 71% citing higher prices as top concern, 59% feeling cautious about economy, 31% planning to spend less than last year, 53% using or planning to use AI for deals, and 58% saying transparent brand communication increases loyalty during Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025.

When: Wunderkind collected survey data October 27-28, 2025, capturing consumer sentiment weeks before Black Friday (November 28) and Cyber Monday (December 1), with 23% planning to wait for those specific dates to shop and 34% having already started in October or earlier.

Where: The survey covers U.S. consumer Black Friday Cyber Monday shopping behavior across multiple channels, with 35% planning to shop mostly online, 36% intending to mix online and in-store shopping, and younger consumers showing climbing in-store enthusiasm driven by social experiences and product discovery.

Why: Research matters for marketing professionals because tariff-related price pressures and economic uncertainty reshape consumer expectations around transparency, value and timing, requiring brands to balance urgency messaging for younger audiences with reassurance for older consumers while leveraging AI personalization, mobile-first engagement and omnichannel coordination to capture demand during retail's most critical revenue period.