IAB releases measurement framework for commerce media campaigns

The Interactive Advertising Bureau and IAB Europe released comprehensive guidelines on November 3, 2025, establishing measurement frameworks for commerce media campaigns. The Guidelines for Incremental Measurement in Commerce Media address fragmentation challenges that have complicated budget allocation decisions as commerce media spending accelerates toward $100 billion by 2028.

The guidelines define incrementality as "the causal impact of marketing by identifying the additional business outcomes directly driven by a campaign or tactic, compared to what would have occurred in the absence of marketing activity." This standardized definition distinguishes incrementality from attribution and ROAS calculations, which show outcomes rather than causality.

IAB Commerce Board members, the Task Force on Incrementality, and IAB Europe's Retail Media Committee developed the framework through weeks of collaboration across industry stakeholders. The development process incorporated insights from national federations including Alliance Digitale and BVDW.

Four measurement approaches classified by causal strength

The guidelines categorize incrementality methods into four distinct types, each assessed for causal reliability and business applications. Experiment-based approaches including randomized control tests, holdouts, and matched markets deliver strong causal evidence through explicit test versus control group comparisons. These methods provide high rigor, particularly for user-level tests, though they require significant resources and time investment.

Model-based counterfactual methods utilize synthetic controls and machine learning propensity models to predict unobserved outcomes. This category offers strong to moderate causal strength with high scalability and retrospective application capabilities, though model bias risks include omitted variable bias and selection bias issues.

Econometric approaches encompass marketing mix modeling and time-series regression techniques. The framework assigns moderate to weak causal strength to these methods, acknowledging their comprehensive scope across all measured channels and ability to incorporate non-media factors. Limitations include backward-looking analysis, lack of granularity, and multicollinearity challenges that reduce predictive accuracy for one-off campaigns.

Hybrid proxies represent the fourth category, including new-to-brand percentages, baseline versus exposed analysis, platform-reported incrementality, and simple multi-touch attribution. The guidelines classify these as weak in causal strength with narrow scope, typically limited to single platforms or specific campaigns. These approaches offer speed and scalability but lack rigorous causal evidence.

Business use cases mapped to measurement methods

The framework provides specific guidance matching measurement approaches to marketing objectives. Campaign optimization benefits most from model-based counterfactual approaches, which enable continuous estimation and rapid recalibration. Experiment-based methods prove effective for validation but face scalability limitations for ongoing programs. Retail media networks have increasingly prioritized optimization capabilities as the sector matures beyond experimental phases.

Budget allocation across commerce media channels requires different methodological priorities. Econometric approaches receive the strongest recommendation for cross-channel planning, designed specifically for unified budget allocation. Model-based counterfactual methods prove useful when cross-channel data integration exists, though accuracy depends on model specifications and unbiased inputs.

Platform comparison demands marketing mix models according to the guidelines. The commerce media ecosystem has expanded rapidly, with spending projected to reach $100 billion by 2028. Experiment-based and model-based approaches face practical barriers for cross-platform assessment due to ecosystem silos and identity fragmentation challenges.

ROI validation represents another critical use case. The guidelines designate experiment-based approaches as gold standard for proving causal lift, particularly through randomized control tests or matched markets. Model-based counterfactual methods complement experiments between testing cycles, extending findings to broader campaigns. Econometric models provide long-term ROI validation but sacrifice granularity. Hybrid proxies offer quick directional validation when rigorous testing proves infeasible, though bias risks remain substantial.

Testing new tactics, formats, or partnerships benefits most from experiment-based methods according to the framework. These approaches deliver clean causal readouts with high credibility for innovation assessment. Model-based counterfactuals extend learnings from test environments but carry extrapolation error sensitivity. Retail media innovation has accelerated, with unified measurement capabilities becoming increasingly important as networks proliferate.

Technical requirements for causal claims

The document establishes three core requirements that incrementality models must satisfy to claim causal validity. First, approaches must establish credible counterfactuals or interventions that separate test and control groups. Without valid "what if not" scenarios, measured differences may reflect correlation rather than campaign impact. Examples include randomized control groups for user-level rigor, holdouts for platform-specific controls, matched markets for geo-level testing, or synthetic control groups for model-based counterfactuals.

Second, models must control for bias beyond random variation. Factors including seasonality, pricing, promotions, competitor activity, and unmeasured concurrent campaigns can distort results if unaccounted for. The framework identifies model bias from selection bias in observational data, multicollinearity in aggregated models where media channels correlate, and data quality issues from inaccurate cross-platform exposure linkage as critical sources requiring explicit identification assumptions and confounding controls.

Third, approaches must separate signal from noise through statistical robustness. Even conceptually sound designs fail when lift estimates fall within noise floors and lack statistical significance. The guidelines emphasize that noise cannot be eliminated entirely, but well-designed studies reduce influence through confidence intervals excluding zero, bootstrapping, falsification tests, and sensitivity analyses. Time dimension helps separate effects from short-term variance, with repeated measurement revealing whether observed lift persists or represents random fluctuation.

Context within broader standardization efforts

IAB Europe has pursued measurement standardization through multiple initiatives addressing commerce media fragmentation. Research indicates 78% of stakeholders identify media measurement as requiring industry alignment, while 69% cite attribution standardization needs. The lack of consistent standards has limited investment confidence, with 70% of buyers identifying this gap as increased spending barriers.

European retail media achieved 22.1% growth in 2024, outpacing the broader advertising market's 6.1% expansion by nearly four times. Performance advertising budgets contributed 55% of shifted investment into commerce media channels. This accelerated growth has intensified pressure for measurement frameworks that enable performance comparison across platforms.

IAB Europe opened public comment on October 9, 2025, for updated Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2. The revised framework incorporates industry feedback collected over 17 months following April 2024's initial release. Updated standards expand beyond traditional retail environments, with quick commerce receiving dedicated metrics reflecting sector growth across European markets.

Platform providers have responded to standardization demands through technical implementations. Criteo integrated with Google Search Ads 360 in September 2025 as the first onsite retail media partner, providing unified measurement capabilities across Criteo's network of 200+ retailers. The integration addresses scale and measurement challenges by enabling brands to view how advertising drives incremental impact through consistent frameworks.

The Trade Desk enabled programmatic retail media buying through Koddi partnership in October 2025, with Gopuff launching as first partner. The integration provides unified retail media management alongside broader full-funnel campaigns, consolidating reporting rather than fragmenting dashboards across multiple networks.

Measurement priorities shape investment decisions

Return on Ad Spend dominates metric requirements according to industry research, with 88% of buyers demanding this measurement though only 71% of retail media networks currently provide consistent ROAS reporting. Incrementality measurement follows at 71% demand, reflecting continued emphasis on performance accountability beyond traditional conversion metrics.

Measurement challenges persist despite growth, according to experts speaking at IAB Australia's Commerce & Retail Media Summit in July 2025. Technical limitations, legislative constraints, and attribution complexity create barriers to comprehensive measurement solutions. While advertisers express interest in sophisticated approaches including incrementality analysis and lifetime customer value, many default to simpler calculations over short time periods.

First-party data activation and omnichannel integration emerge as top growth priorities, each cited by 39% of buyers for the next 12 months according to IAB Europe research. Incrementality sales measurement ranks third at 37%, reflecting strategic focus on demonstrating genuine business impact rather than capturing outcomes that would have occurred regardless of marketing activity.

The guidelines emphasize that incrementality represents an ongoing process rather than one-time testing. Changes in competition, consumer behavior, and marketing tactics shift outcomes over time. Repeated measurement across periods reveals whether observed lift persists or represents random fluctuation, underscoring incrementality's role in understanding both past performance and future impact drivers.

Commerce media networks have emerged across multiple sectors, with payment providers, airlines, and retailers leveraging transactional data to create advertising opportunities. Mastercard launched its commerce media network in October 2025, operating with 25,000 advertisers and reaching 500 million enrolled consumers. The platform delivers up to 22 times return on ad spend through permissioned transaction data from over 160 billion annual payments processed in 2024.

Industry adoption and certification programs

Albert Heijn became the first retail media network to achieve certification under IAB Europe's measurement programme in September 2025. The certification process, conducted by independent auditor ABC, validated compliance with standardized measurement protocols for display and sponsored product formats across onsite properties.

Platform developments have supported incrementality adoption. Google reduced incrementality testing budget requirements to $5,000 minimum during May 2025's Google Marketing Live, utilizing Bayesian methodology to deliver insights with substantially less data than traditional approaches. Marketing mix modeling has experienced significant growth following reduced signals from traditional attribution methods and privacy legislation changes, according to IAB Australia's September 2025 landscape report profiling twelve vendors.

Retail media networks have embraced programmatic access, with Pentaleap and Teads announcing real-time bidding capability for onsite Sponsored Product Ads in July 2025. The integration addresses fragmentation by providing standardized access to Sponsored Product inventory through unified platforms. IAB Tech Lab finalized OpenRTB specification updates for product listing advertisements to standardize programmatic commerce media transactions.

The guidelines conclude that approaches satisfying three principles—credible counterfactuals, bias control, and signal-noise separation—can claim causal validity. Marketers should align measurement methods to decision stakes: high-stakes strategic questions including budget allocation and ROI validation require stronger causal foundations, while fast tactical optimization may accept lighter-weight proxies provided limitations receive acknowledgment.

As commerce media spending approaches $100 billion, adopting shared measurement frameworks enables consistent performance comparison, fair result evaluation, and genuine business growth attribution beyond outcomes that would have occurred without marketing activity.

Timeline

• September 2024: IAB Europe releases In-Store Retail Media measurement standards for public comment
• April 2024: IAB Europe releases initial Retail Media Measurement Standards following February-March consultation
• March 2025: IAB Europe publishes updated retail media definitions covering on-site, off-site, and in-store categories across European markets
• May 2025: Google cuts incrementality testing budget requirements to $5,000 minimum utilizing Bayesian methodology
• July 2025: IAB Europe releases retail media best practice guides for buyers and networks emphasizing measurement consistency
• July 29, 2025: IAB Australia Commerce & Retail Media Summit addresses measurement challenges despite sector growth
• August 2025: IAB Europe's Attitudes to Retail Media Report shows 78% of stakeholders identify media measurement as requiring alignment
• September 2025: Albert Heijn achieves first retail media network certification under IAB Europe measurement programme
• September 9, 2025: IAB and IAB Europe release "Demystifying Incrementality in Commerce Media" framework
• September 18, 2025: IAB Australia releases market mix modeling vendor landscape profiling twelve vendors
• October 9, 2025: IAB Europe opens public comment on updated Commerce Media Measurement Standards V2
• October 14, 2025: IAB Europe updates Pan-European Retail & Commerce Media Landscape Map reflecting ecosystem growth
• November 3, 2025: IAB and IAB Europe release Guidelines for Incremental Measurement in Commerce Media

Summary

Who: The Interactive Advertising Bureau and IAB Europe developed the guidelines through collaboration involving the IAB Commerce Board, Task Force on Incrementality, IAB Europe's Retail Media Committee, and Retailer Council. Development incorporated weeks of expert collaboration from industry stakeholders and built upon work from national federations including Alliance Digitale and BVDW.

What: Comprehensive guidelines establishing standardized frameworks for incremental measurement in commerce media. The document categorizes four method types—experiment-based, model-based counterfactual, econometric, and hybrid proxies—each assessed for causal strength, scope, and appropriate business applications. Guidelines define technical requirements for causal validity including credible counterfactuals, bias control, and signal-noise separation.

When: IAB and IAB Europe released the guidelines on November 3, 2025, following months of collaborative development. The announcement built upon progressive standardization efforts including IAB Europe's April 2024 initial measurement standards, updated retail media definitions in March 2025, and October 2025 public comment period for revised standards.

Where: The guidelines apply globally to commerce media measurement, developed jointly by IAB (United States) and IAB Europe. The framework addresses challenges across retail and commerce media networks operating worldwide, with specific attention to European market standardization needs identified through stakeholder research across 31 markets.

Why: Commerce media spending rapidly accelerates toward $100 billion by 2028, creating pressure for marketers to prove investment drives genuine business growth rather than capturing outcomes occurring regardless of marketing activity. Research indicates 78% of stakeholders identify media measurement as requiring industry alignment, while 70% of buyers cite lack of standards as investment barriers. Fragmentation across platforms has complicated performance comparison, budget allocation decisions, and ROI validation, necessitating unified measurement frameworks enabling consistent evaluation and fair comparison across commerce media ecosystem.